Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.359620 3.200855 4.384023 6.225858 9.129755e+00 13.736123 2.205841e+01
2025-02-23 1.431351 2.207682 3.503977 5.988338 1.107305e+01 22.251079 5.357534e+01
2025-03-02 0.913863 1.547191 2.750320 5.476883 1.249580e+01 33.777332 1.334880e+02
2025-03-09 0.681386 1.261278 2.512690 5.895848 1.722663e+01 69.503973 6.450599e+02
2025-03-16 0.517798 1.033058 2.274751 6.223747 2.347594e+01 154.333460 6.634837e+03
2025-03-23 0.413223 0.883711 2.143334 6.864780 3.460986e+01 449.212402 3.369964e+06
2025-03-30 0.333847 0.757980 2.004325 7.453680 5.105108e+01 1686.892434 NaN
2025-04-06 0.260078 0.614972 1.727467 7.168444 6.290596e+01 5760.208115 NaN
2025-04-13 0.202760 0.494089 1.452855 6.570434 7.114878e+01 21361.098004 NaN
2025-04-20 0.171394 0.434936 1.361977 6.965058 1.047463e+02 860597.503568 NaN
2025-04-27 0.151388 0.401763 1.351166 7.998267 1.872310e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.135098 0.373866 1.346580 9.242836 3.639809e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.116685 0.333680 1.269793 9.871252 6.480793e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.098097 0.286152 1.126444 9.480484 9.022042e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.081813 0.241611 0.971521 8.603430 1.062503e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.073056 0.221877 0.936861 9.359618 2.343477e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.065205 0.202843 0.893796 9.960379 5.476373e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.059395 0.189798 0.877872 11.133046 2.059575e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.054096 0.176989 0.854866 12.227020 1.152497e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.047734 0.157754 0.776358 11.713911 3.053228e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.041786 0.138702 0.688182 10.631053 4.784795e+05 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.038407 0.129781 0.665914 11.358373 2.238620e+07 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.036235 0.125476 0.674654 13.280866 NaN NaN NaN